Welcome back to Carson’s Take Five with Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese! This week, we tackle the latest inflation data, why consumer expectations are rising, and why we still aren’t too concerned. From conflicting survey results to real-world business insights, we break down the numbers and cut through the noise.
Key Takeaways:
- Conflicting Inflation Signals: Consumer surveys show rising inflation expectations, but small business data from the Atlanta Fed remains stable.
- What’s Really Driving Inflation? Shelter, auto insurance, and a few select categories are pushing inflation higher, while most other prices are stable or declining.
- The Fed’s Perspective: Despite inflation fears, the Fed is likely to stay on track for 2-3 rate cuts in the back half of the year.
- Wage Growth & Job Market Trends: While wages are rising at a steady pace, declining quit rates suggest workers have less leverage to demand big pay raises.
- Self-Fulfilling Inflation Concerns? Higher inflation expectations can drive price increases, but current labor market trends suggest this isn’t a major risk yet.
- Live from California! Sonu checks in from the Pacific Coast, enjoying breakfast (with no egg surcharge!).
